The Acquirers Multiple – Tobias Carlisle

En kort och koncis bok (ca 120 sidor), lillebror till Deep Value av Tobias Carlisle. Väldigt applicerbar och jag skulle säga att den passar alla amatörinvesterare som inte kan hitta moats och liknande.

Key takeaways:

  • The Acquirers Multiple är EV/EBIT
    • Tar fram nettoskulden i företagen.
  • Mean reversion
    • Det är detta som det hela går ut på.
    • Undervärderade aktier brukar slå marknaden, dyra gör det inte.
    • Snabbväxande företag saktar ner. Väldigt lönsamma företag blir mindre lönsamma och vice versa.
    • Saker går tillbaks till det normala.
    • Trycker upp undervärderade aktier och trycker ner dyra aktier.
  • Zig when the crowd zags.
    • Köp aktier som ingen vill ha och sälj aktier som folk vill ha.
  • “The highest rates of return I’ve ever achieved were in the 1950s. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers…I think I could make you 50 percent a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that.” —Warren Buffett, BusinessWeek , July 5, 1999
    • Vid den här tiden så var det inte investering i kvalitet och moats.
      • This is Buffett’s wonderful company, which earns defensible high returns on capital. It has good economics and resists competition. Good managers maintain the high returns by paying out any capital not needed in the business. They always work to shore up the business’s moat.
      • Highly profitable stocks only beat the market if Buffett’s moat protects the profits. Without the moat, highly profitable stocks will get beaten up by the competition. Mean reversion acts on profits to drag down winners and push up losers. Investors should use some common sense and natural skepticism about profit charts that march all the way to heaven.
        • Extremt svårt att hitta.
    • Generals, workouts och control situations. Det var så Buffett jobbade i början av sin karriär.
  • Bilden nedan tycker jag är väldigt talande.
Investors expect stocks with profits that have gone up for a few years to keep going up. And they think stocks with a few years of falling profits will keep going down.
  • The reasons most people lag the market: cognitive biases and behavioral errors.

Rules of deep value

  1. Zig when the crowd zags.
  2. Buy undervalued companies.
  3. Seek a margin of safety.
    1. Cash and other liquid securities > debt.
    2. Strong operating earnings with matching cash flow.
      1. Matching cash flows ensures the accounting earnings are real.
    3. Weak current profits in a stock with a good past record offer a good chance for mean reversion in those profits.
  4. Treat a share as an ownership interest, not a mere ticker symbol.
  5. Be wary of high earnings growth and profits.
    1. Mean reversion is a powerful force.
    2. Moats are harder to find and easier to cross than most investors realize.
    3. The evidence shows the odds of finding the next high-growth or high-profit stock are about the same as flipping a coin. Buffett’s genius has been to identify these businesses. Mere mortals are better served buying at a steep discount to value.
  6. Use simple, concrete rules to avoid making errors.
  7. Concentrate, but not too much.
    1. Don’t become too concentrated. Assume your calculations and thinking are wrong. Remember, it’s more likely you are wrong and the rest of the market is right.

Rekommenderar denna bok och ser fram emot att läsa Deep Value i framtiden.


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